Matt Brooks at 2:57 p.m., November 12, 2008 (1 comment)
Welcome back to the Top Five Football Power Poll for our final regular-season installment.
With Loudoun County's big win at Heritage on Friday, they secured a spot in the playoffs and the fifth spot in our rankings. All five teams are postseason-bound with No. 1 Stone Bridge moving on to the second round of the AAA Northern Region playoffs with its rout of Jefferson. This week, the Bulldogs take on Tenorio's mighty Majors, who just squeaked by my beloved Washington-Lee Generals. Expect another beatdown in Ashburn. . (But not as bad a beat-down as would have been administered to the Generals. - PT)
With the second-season upon us, today we'll take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team to highlight what they need to exploit and what they need to improve in order to make their playoff run last into December.
Let's get it started...
1. No. 2 STONE BRIDGE (11-0, 8-0 AAA Liberty) Last week: 1
Week 11 Result: def. Jefferson 58-7
Next Big Test: Friday vs. Mt. Vernon
What Tenorio Sees- There's no doubt that right now Stone Bridge is the heavy favorite in its semifinal against Mount Vernon, but what this game provides is an opportunity to slowly integrate QB Patrick Thompson back onto the field. Thompson has been telling me that he was going to be back for this game, while his father, Coach Mickey Thompson, was less optimistic. I expect Patrick to see the field in a limited role, as the Bulldogs single-wing has been effective without him, putting up 50 points per game in the past two weeks. Another thing to keep an eye on is how the defense works without two of its starters on the field against an athletic Mount Vernon team. The Majors run an option-based offense with lots of outside runs, but they may be more prone to test the inside with Jimmy Bradford and Travis Hannam out. Still, even with the injuries you have to expect the Bulldogs to come away with a comfortable win at home and look to get healthy and regroup for what likely will be a trip to Edison for the Northern Region final.
What Brooks Sees- I see Tenorio struggling internally with finding a way to support his alma mater while be realistic about their ultra-slim odds this week in Ashburn. The Bulldogs haven't skipped a beat without Thompson and whether or not he's on the field for them, I expect that offense to keep chugging along. The lone common opponent for Stone Bridge and Mount Vernon is Jefferson, the team Stone Bridge hammered 70-7 and 58-7 in the last three weeks. The Majors scored an equally dominant 38-0 victory against the Colonials earlier this season, and they have shown an ability to put up points. But there's a big difference between putting up points and pouring on the points a la the Bulldogs. The Majors average 29.5 points per contest while Stone Bridge is scoring 51.2. Also, even with Bradford and Hannam out, the Majors haven't seen a defense like Stone Bridge's and those "athletes" won't have much room to run against this strong, fast and hard-hitting unit. Set that itinerary for Fairfax next Friday night.
2. No. 16 BROAD RUN (10-0, 7-0 AA Dulles) Last week: 2
Week 11 Result: def. Park View 39-26
Next Big Test: Friday vs. Loudoun County
What Tenorio Sees- The Spartans have somehow "quietly" pulled away with an undefeated season with everybody talking about the team they'll face, Loudoun County, as we enter the postseason. But what we know about Loudoun County is that they like to run the football and what we know about Broad Run is that they are very good at stopping the run. If you look at run-first teams and how they fared when forced to put the ball in the air more often than not against Broad Run, you can see what happens. Two dominating shutouts over Briar Woods and Potomac Falls come to mind. To me what makes Broad Run an even more dangerous team than people realize is the impact T.J. Peeler has had in the past four weeks. He may have only been a second-team All-District selection, but Peeler has racked up over 600 yards and scored 10 touchdowns in the last four weeks. He's averaging more than 13 yards a carry, and I think the junior will be the guy that guides the Spartans through the playoffs. If Peeler continues to play the way he has the past month and takes Broad Run through the postseason, the Dulles may be kicking itself for putting the kid on the second team and not the first.
What Brooks Sees- Quietly? Did you have your earmuffs on when the Spartans put the wood to both Potomac Falls and Briar Woods? Those were two big shutouts against the second- and third-best teams in the district. The Spartans haven't lost a regular season game in two years and the burgundy and gold train is rolling at just the right time. Peeler provides the muscle and Offensive Player of the Year Breon Earl provides the explosive quickness on the outside and in the kicking game. Chris Jessop played his best game in several weeks in Friday's win at Park View and his chemistry and timing with big-play receiver Adrian Flemming will be critical to Broad Run's success in the coming weeks. The defense had some lapses against the Patriots, but most of those came in the second half and on passing plays. This is the strongest unit in the league on either side of the ball and you can bet Defensive Player of the Year Kenny McAdow will have his troops ready to go with Loudoun County comes to visit on Friday night.
3. POTOMAC FALLS (9-1, 6-1 AA Dulles), Last week: 3
Week 11 Result: def. Dominion 48-10
Next Big Test: Friday vs. James Wood
What Tenorio Sees- I'll admit I probably took the longest of anyone to buy into Potomac Falls as a legitimate contender this year, but now that the playoffs are upon us I don't see the Panthers getting stopped at home in the first round. They have such a well-rounded, balanced offense and a defense with a knack for making plays, and I think they are able to handle James Wood in Sterling. Michael Baker is going to be the most critical player for the Panthers in the postseason. His success in the run game will dictate everything else for Potomac Falls, and I think they'll look to work different schemes into that part of the offense after being shut down by Broad Run. In their first playoff game in school history, it'll also be interesting to see how much of a crowd they pull at home. You hope the team gets the big-time support they need. James Wood is not going to be an easy task by any stretch, but I think Potomac Falls takes the game at home.
What Brooks Sees- These guys play with a mean streak I haven't seen from any other team this season. They go into every game expecting to win and looking to blow their opponents out of the water. As far as playing at home goes, they haven't lost a game in Sterling (that includes at Dominion and Park View) since October 29, 2007. When Friday's game moved from Dominion to Potomac Falls, the Panthers took a 27-10 lead and blew the game open to win 48-10. The intensity they play with is a double-edged sword, however, as they have been prone to personal fouls and and other penalties all season. But if they can pound the ball with Baker, let Gregory Woodlief make plays in the passing game and stay aggressive on defense, we're likely to see Broad Run-Potomac Falls Round 2 next week in Ashburn.
4. BRIAR WOODS (8-2, 5-2 AA Dulles) Last week: 4
Week 11 Result: def. Freedom 61-23
Next Big Test: Friday at Monticello
What Tenorio Sees- Briar Woods is probably the biggest question mark for me heading into the playoffs. They trailed at halftime against Freedom before putting up big points in the second half, but they won't have the luxury of starting slow against Monticello on the road. The Falcons are even more of a run-first team than they were early in the season due to the loss of the starting quarterback, and with a less dynamic offense the play of the defense will be even more crucial. We praised the Falcons defense early and often, and they've proved to be one of the best units against the run, but giving up 23 points to Freedom is worrisome and you have to believe Charlie Pierce will be fine-tuning some things this week in practice.
What Brooks Sees- Yes, the way they won the 'Bird Bowl' was a cause for concern, but there were also a few positives to take away from it. 1) Ray Taliaferro continued his torrid second half of the season, rushing for 204 yards and scoring three TDs; 2) Freshman QB Edwin Mends had his most productive game passing the ball. He had struggled with his timing on routes having only recently started working with the first team offense, but his 194-yard, 4-TD night will definitely give him confidence heading into the postseason; and 3) The Falcons got their heads on straight at halftime and came back out and dominated the Eagles - outscoring them 40-0 in the second half. Friday night's game is going to be a battle and it could all come down to the play of the Falcons' lines. Offensively, they need to open up holes for Taliaferro, who has become their main source of offense, and on the defensive end, stopping the run is paramount.
5. LOUDOUN COUNTY (6-4, 4-3) Last Week: NR
Week 11 Result: def. Heritage 27-21
Next Big Test: Friday at Broad Run
What Tenorio Sees- I've talked all season long about how I had faith that this Loudoun County team had the type of talent and coaching to be a playoff team, even joking about driving the LC Bandwagon, and while I may have taken some heat for doing so, my prediction did work out in the end. The Raiders turnaround is a great story, and Coach Todd Hill has done a first-rate job since taking over last year. His push to a run-heavy offense made the difference for the Raiders in the last three weeks of the season, but the biggest fundamental change made may have been getting the Raiders to tackle well. Loudoun County struggled against Handley, Potomac Falls, Broad Run and Briar Woods in bringing the ball carrier down, but have looked much better in final games of the season. They'll get a huge test this week against Peeler, who is the hottest player in the area right now and will bring more power than any of the last three teams they faced. If they can't slow that rushing attack, you will likely see a repeat of the LC-BR game from earlier this season.
What Brooks Sees- The Raiders needs to have some early success running the ball with Joe Bushrod to work himself into the game rather than forcing him to throw the ball on every second and third down they face. In their first meeting this season, Bushrod threw 19 passes and backup Austin Campbell tossed another 15. The Raiders were only able to muster 54 yards on the ground on 27 carries and fell behind early on which didn't help their cause. Beating Broad Run will be a very difficult task for anyone in this district, but for the Raiders to have a shot, they will need to play nearly flawless football.
Dropped Out: Heritage (6-4, 3-4 AA Dulles)
Got a gripe with our rankings? Let us hear it below in the comments section!
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Comments:
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We'll excuse Mr. Brooks' reference to the "burgundy and gold," as they are the 3rd best team in Ashburn. That would be maroon and gold Matt. Come on out to the Broad Run-County game Friday night and ask the the students in the end zone what the team colors are. I'm sure the "Maroon Crew" will give you an earful! Go Spartans!
Posted by galotasp (anonymous) on November 13, 2008 at 8:40 p.m. (Suggest removal)
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